ππ¦ π₯³ WRAPPING APRIL WITH A SCREAM: FALCON KINGDOM, CRYPTO BULLS, & THE SOLANA SURGE πΎπ¦ π₯³
Disclaimer: πβ¨π These are just the reflections, freeflow, occasional deep dives of one crazy + passionate sapien, who is nothing but an amalgamation of stardust in the great game of entropy. Its not meant to serve as any form of financial advice nor investment recommendations, like in all thing in life, one should always DYOR + DD. Enjoy TheΒ AscentΒ πβ¨π
Dear Ascent Dragons,
After a fun SG & UAE trip, KVP is finally sitting down & sharing some top-of-mind thoughts that cover what happened in the month of April:
First off, SCREAM!
Every time KVP returns to the Falcon Kingdom, it's like a loud, unmistakable shoutβ it's so clear that they're in their "Lee Kuan Yew years." The UAE today mirrors where Hong Kong & Singapore were 20-30 years ago. Yes, like crypto, it's that early...
On a separate note, HODL +
received some great feedback to be including examples of some of the amazing things happening within the crypto worldβ & will start doing that in our future updates. Expect the next one in 2-3wks, as soon as May NAVs are confirmed - we'll focus on real-world use, rather than just theory...ππ
KVP's META View remains unchangedβ the crypto bull market cycle is still intact with a final destination that puts us in that +$8T to $10T camp, from today's $2.5T value of the space.
Several structural tailwinds behind this view, but the overarching theme is the inevitable endgame of TradFi: more monetary printing, due to uncontrollable fiscal spending, continued sub-optimal allocation of resources & the vested interests of sapiens in centralized systems skewing society to where the minority (elite + incumbent) benefit, yet at the expense of the majority (masses & taxpayers).ππΈ
All of this leads to continued financial repression & an erosion of wealth.
As an example, $1M in 2008, is worth half of that today in purchasing power - you would need $1.5M for the equivalent wealth. & this is a calculator from the US Labor of Statistics... which likely means, the purchasing power is probably even less, as the government tends to filter asset class inflation so they look good (i.e. true inflation is almost always certainly higher, just ask anyone you know in the US about the rising costs of insurance, education, & medical care in recent years...) π°
Tactically - We flagged in the last update that April was a challenging month for both crypto & risk assets in general - yet May is currently looking like the exact opposite.
We've gone back to see BTC break out of its $66K to $60K bearish channel & it even clocked to just shy of $72,000. The bulls are firmly in control, yet it really looked like we were going to test the low 50s on BTC at one point, yet these markets are sharp & dynamic.ππ
ETH has also woken from its slumber & sitting at around $3,800β which is just $200 away from the March high of this year, yet still well south of the c. $4,900 ATH of the previous cycle, that was hit in Nov 2021. Don't get KVP wrong, it's still underperforming as hell! Yet great to see some signs of life!
The ETH L1s have had a great bounce so far, yet from a tactical perspective it is still hard to say how much has been short-covering so far, versus what we are looking to re-rate. Again, April was tough, so the fuel for courage & dry powder feels slightly tapped out for May.πͺ
Would expect with the ETF narrative done (was a question of WHEN, not IF...) yet even KVP is impressed by this Administration's aroundβ no doubt due to the upcoming elections & the fact that Biden continues to stake himself repeatedly in the face. At this rate, George Washington is going to have more votes than $BODEN.π³οΈπΊπΈ
& yes, Solana is likely going to be the next heralded ETF... say what you want about that ecosystem, it's got the sweet spot trifecta of:
MulaΒ - Billions in their Treasury, meaning they can bankroll developers & developments on the chain
Visceral tribal ecosystem - Key in crypto π‘οΈπ₯
MomentumΒ - as KVP likes to say, there is no momentum like momentum
Thought you said Trifecta? We did, we did... yet the last point is also key... it's got the math for a better Risk-reward trade for this cycle than most other major blue tokens... (i.e. BTC $70,000 is at $1.4T MC today, ETH $3,800 is $450B MC, SOL $170 is $77B).
So if we see ETH get to a low end of $12K or $1.2T, a c. +3x move from here... then we likely have SOL doing at least +5x to $400B.
Crypto Catalysts = Macro Catalysts (Still).
With the two most important known crypto catalysts behind us (Bitcoin Spot ETF listingΒ + BTC Halving), & the most recent one on the ETH etfs - crypto will now shift fully focused on Macro, with the run-up to the US presidential elections in Nov potential serving as key event risks.Β
Remember you cannot escape physics & mathβthe US government is trapped with:
+$34T in gov debt
+123% gov debt / US GDP
+310% total US Debt / US GDP
+$1T in debt added every 100D
+$1T in interest rate commitments & rising
We have a Biden-Kamala White House Administration & Democratic Party who are printing money on the fiscal policy side as if we are in the mother of all recessions & wars. They have no accountability, so they don't care about the consequences.
This is something that everyone forgets about when they are trying to decipher what the Fed & monetary policy can & should doβ they are not necessarily the same.π§
This is once again the screaming call of separating money (at the very least a portion of it) from the state.
Macro-wise, the markets are just going to be looking for further confirmation on inflation rates trending down, a Fed that is relevant to stay on the sidelines for longer (let alone hike) & we are still potentially looking for the earliest rate move in Dec... yet we are already seeing the buying of votes playing a key role (i.e. those ETH etfs were not greenlighted by this administration because they love crypto...).
We likely continue to see risk assets melt up higher.
π Ascent Capital π
β’β β Prescient Always β’ Rising Forever β’